Population ageing and sustainability in South Tyrol: measuring the economic implications of an ageing society

Meeting the challenge of population ageing requires a better understanding of frailty and disability, and appropriate strategies to ensure the resilience of health and social care system, without destabilising public finances or over-burdening the economy. Exceptional increases in life expectancy will primarily impact health care and long-term care spending, making countries face an ongoing challenge in caring for a heterogeneous population of older adults. Within this context, the current paper is designed to (a) measure the current needs for social care in South Tyrol, (b) identify the local trajectories of important health status, disaggregated by age, sex and severity of illness, (c) forecast the health care needs and healthcare system financial sustainability. Data is drawn on population age and sex structure data provided by ISTAT from 2019 to 2050, as well as on health care data collected from 2009 to 2019 for administrative and billing purposes by the Autonomous Province of Bozen-Bolzano, which are exploited to study health care delivery, benefits, harms, and costs. Preliminary results show a decrease in the prevalence of individuals receiving home care allowance from 2009 to 2019 for all levels of severity and for both men and women. Overall, greater prevalence occurs at lower levels of health condition severity (levels 1 and 2 over a 4 points-scale of severity) and after age 75. Based on monthly payments administrative flows, further developments provide for an estimate of a yearly average cost for each care recipient (by age, sex, and health condition), to assess current costs and forecast the future social system burden at local level.