The tendency to perceive outcomes as more foreseeable once they are available is a well-known phenomenon. However, research on the cognitive and motivational factors that induce individuals to overestimate the foreseeability of an electoral outcome has yielded inconsistent findings. In three studies based on large-scale electoral surveys (ITANES, Italian National Election Studies), we argued that the tendency to perceive an electoral outcome as foreseeable is positively and consistently associated with satisfaction with the outcome. Across all studies, satisfaction with the outcome was significantly and positively associated with retrospective foreseeability, above and beyond voters’ preference for a “winning” or “losing” party. In Study 3, a measure of memory distortion of pre-electoral forecasts was included, which was only weakly associated with retrospective foreseeability, but not with satisfaction for the outcome, supporting the notion of different levels of hindsight bias associated with different cognitive and motivational factors.

Bertolotti, M. M., Catellani, P., Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status, <<SOCIAL COGNITION>>, 2021; 39 (2): 201-224. [doi:10.1521/soco.2021.39.2.201] [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/177135]

Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status

Bertolotti, Mauro Maria
Primo
;
Catellani, Patrizia
Secondo
2021

Abstract

The tendency to perceive outcomes as more foreseeable once they are available is a well-known phenomenon. However, research on the cognitive and motivational factors that induce individuals to overestimate the foreseeability of an electoral outcome has yielded inconsistent findings. In three studies based on large-scale electoral surveys (ITANES, Italian National Election Studies), we argued that the tendency to perceive an electoral outcome as foreseeable is positively and consistently associated with satisfaction with the outcome. Across all studies, satisfaction with the outcome was significantly and positively associated with retrospective foreseeability, above and beyond voters’ preference for a “winning” or “losing” party. In Study 3, a measure of memory distortion of pre-electoral forecasts was included, which was only weakly associated with retrospective foreseeability, but not with satisfaction for the outcome, supporting the notion of different levels of hindsight bias associated with different cognitive and motivational factors.
2021
Inglese
Bertolotti, M. M., Catellani, P., Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status, <<SOCIAL COGNITION>>, 2021; 39 (2): 201-224. [doi:10.1521/soco.2021.39.2.201] [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/177135]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10807/177135
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