Corporate Strategy on GMOs under Alternative Futures: The Case of a Large Food Retailer in Italy

This article analyses the possible response strategies of a large Italian food retailer to alternative future scenarios for the segregation of GM and non-GM products/ingredients in EU feed and food supply chains. Scenarios were developed by key EU feed-food supply chain stakeholders during a 2-day workshop held in Brussels in September 2014. Based on two major drivers, namely regulatory framework and perception of genetically modified organisms, stakeholders ended up with three scenarios: 1) Enabling regulatory framework, negative consumer's perception of GMOs; 2) Restrictive regulatory framework, positive consumer's perception of GMOs; 3) Restrictive regulatory framework, negative consumer's perception of GMOs. The retailer's strategy, which entails the certification of all the products sold under its private label as non-GM, could be modified under different future scenarios. For example, with an increase in segregation costs due to a more restrictive regulatory framework and a positive perception of GMOs, the retailer may decide to differentiate private labels based on other safety/quality attributes or on the direct benefits for consumers of second generation quality-enhanced GM products. If instead under a restrictive regulation the consumer's perception was still negative, the de facto ban of GMOs in the EU would probably cancel the retailer's exclusive reputational benefits from its voluntary non-GM schemes, making this differentiation process unprofitable.