Modelling tumour volume variations in head and neck cancer: magnetic resonance imaging contribution for patients undergoing induction chemotherapy

Primary tumour volume evaluation has predictive value for estimating survival outcomes. Using volumetric data acquired by MRI in patients undergoing induction chemotherapy (IC) these outcomes were estimated before the radiotherapy course in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients. MRI performed before and after IC in 36 locally advanced HNC patients were analysed to measure primary tumour volume. The two volumes were correlated using the linear-log ratio (LLR) between the volume in the first MRI and the volume in the second. Cox's proportional hazards models (CPHM) were defined for loco-regional control (LRC), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Strict evaluation of the influence of volume delineation uncertainties on prediction of final outcomes has been defined. LLR showed good predictive value for all survival outcomes in CPHM. Predictive models for LRC and DFS at 24 months showed optimal discrimination and prediction capability. Evaluation of primary tumour volume variations in HNC after IC provides an example of modelling that can be easily used even for other adaptive treatment approaches. A complete assessment of uncertainties in covariates required for running models is a prerequisite to create reliable clinically models.