In S&OP, planners have to decide how much to produce on the basis of expected future sales. Such forecasts are often made through a process of judgmental adjustment on the “anchor” provided by a statistical algorithm. However, these adjustments are often inefficient. This paper aims at testing through an experiment whether the involvement of the forecasters with the product category and their emotional reaction to particular products can drive their accuracy. It was found that forecasters who liked particular products tended to suffer from significant optimism bias. However, the bias was reduced when forecasters also had high involvement with the product category.

Belvedere, V., Goodwin, P., Heuristics vs. Biases in S&OP: an Insight into the Decision Making Process of Emotionally Involved Planners, Paper, in 20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery, (Dublino, 07-12 June 2013), Euroma, Amsterdam 2013: 1-10 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/88282]

Heuristics vs. Biases in S&OP: an Insight into the Decision Making Process of Emotionally Involved Planners

Belvedere, Valeria
Primo
;
2013

Abstract

In S&OP, planners have to decide how much to produce on the basis of expected future sales. Such forecasts are often made through a process of judgmental adjustment on the “anchor” provided by a statistical algorithm. However, these adjustments are often inefficient. This paper aims at testing through an experiment whether the involvement of the forecasters with the product category and their emotional reaction to particular products can drive their accuracy. It was found that forecasters who liked particular products tended to suffer from significant optimism bias. However, the bias was reduced when forecasters also had high involvement with the product category.
Inglese
20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery
20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery
Dublino
Paper
7-giu-2013
12-giu-2013
9781905254743
Euroma
Belvedere, V., Goodwin, P., Heuristics vs. Biases in S&OP: an Insight into the Decision Making Process of Emotionally Involved Planners, Paper, in 20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery, (Dublino, 07-12 June 2013), Euroma, Amsterdam 2013: 1-10 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/88282]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10807/88282
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