Un modele épidémiologique pour piloter le traitement contre F. graminearum sur céréales à paille: analyse de sensibilité sur les paramètres climatiques

Fusarium head blight is a major disease of wheat; it alters the yield and grain quality. In a context of reduced use of pesticides and regulations on mycotoxins at harvest, ARVALIS in collaboration with the University of Piacenza is developing a model that aims to optimize treatment against F. graminearum, the main mycotoxins-producing species on wheat. This mechanistic model describes the sexual stage of the pathogen. A first prototype was developed based on climatic parameters. To understand better the model outputs and the influence of each of the model parameters on these outputs, a sensitivity analysis was performed through three methods: Morris, ANOVA and Random Forest. These methods gave consistent results, enabling us to identify the most influential parameters.