A-scab (Apple-scab), a simulation model for estimating risk of Venturia inaequalis primary infections

A-scab (Apple-scab) is a dynamic simulation model for Venturia inaequalis primary infections on apple. It simulates development of pseudothecia, ascospore maturation, discharge, deposition and infection during the season based on hourly data of air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and leaf wetness. A-scab produces a risk index for each infection period and forecasts the probable periods of symptoms appearance. The model was validated under different epidemiological conditions: its outputs were successfully compared with daily spore counts and actual onset and severity of the disease under orchard conditions, and neither corrections nor calibrations have been necessary to adapt the model to different apple-growing areas. Compared to other existing models, A-scab: (i) combines information from literature and data acquired from specific experiments; (ii) is completely 'open' because both model structure and algorithms have been published and are easily accessible; (iii) is not written with a specific computer language but it works on simple-to-use electronic sheets. For these reasons the model can be easily implemented in the computerized systems used by warning services.