Tra "Dunkelflaute" e GNL: l’inverno 2025-2026 in Germania

This study examines the structural evolution of the German energy system during the 2025-2026 winter season, focusing on risk management strategies related to the Dunkelflaute – prolonged periods of negligible wind and solar output – within a highly decarbonized framework. Drawing on empirical data from the winter season 2025-2026, the research identifies a paradigmatic shift in Germany’s procurement strategy: a transition from a model centered on maximizing physical gas reserves toward a dynamic reliance on spot Liquefied Natural Gas (Lng) supplies. The analysis demonstrates that despite a significant increase in climatic severity – evidenced by an 11.4% year-on-year rise in Heating Degree Days (Hdds) – and a subsequent 7.4% increase in gas-fired power generation, the system maintained a superficial resilience despite starting the season with substantially depleted storage levels (–24% as of November 1, 2025 vis-à-vis November 1, 2024). This equilibrium was sustained by an unprecedented surge in Lng regasification send-outs, which rose by 154% compared to the previous year, effectively offsetting lower drawdowns from conventional storage facilities. Furthermore, the study explores the macroeconomic and geopolitical ramifications of this strategy, noting the persistent «anemia» of German industrial production, which remains well below pre-pandemic levels, and a burgeoning structural dependence on the United States, now the primary provider of Lng to the Eu27 (accounting for 38% of total imports). The paper concludes by critiquing the current «outsourcing of risk» to global spot markets and advocates for a coordinated European framework to negotiate medium-to-long-term contracts (Ltcs). Such a shift is deemed essential to mitigate price volatility and ensure that energy security is not merely a function of favorable weather patterns or the unilateral policy shifts of extra-European partners.