Fear, Fact, and Prejudice: Disentangling The Drivers Of Restrictive Immigration Attitudes

This paper investigates how subjective fear and actual experiences of crime interact to shape attitudes toward immigrants. Using data from Round 11 of the European Social Survey (ESS) and applying survey weights to account for the complex sampling design, we employ Item Response Theory (IRT) to construct a robust latent measure of support for restrictive immigrant admission policies. A weighted linear regression model with an interaction term reveals that while perceived insecurity is strongly associated with greater restrictiveness, prior crime victimization significantly moderates this relationship (p =.035). Among individuals who report feeling unsafe, prior victimization (burglary or assault) is associated with higher restrictive immigration attitudes, consistent with an amplification pattern. Among individuals who maintain a sense of safety, victimization is instead associated with a smaller, more tentative reduction in restrictiveness, consistent with a possible resilience effect. Because victimization refers to events occurring in the five years preceding the interview, this temporal ordering is consistent with a pathway from crime experience to subsequent attitudes.