Self-Fulfillment and Fertility Intentions: The Interplay of Postmaterialism and Expected Welfare State Support

We examined whether the perceived self-fulfillment relevance of childbearing is associated with the link between expected welfare-state childcare support and fertility intentions, and whether this association varies by individuals’ level of postmaterialism. Drawing on the Rapporto Giovani 2022 survey across Italy, France, Germany, and Spain, we analyzed a sample of 2616 childless adults aged 25–34. We first modeled how self-fulfillment valuation of parenthood varies by postmaterialism and welfare expectations. Next, we estimated a moderated mediation model through generalized structural equation modeling with nonparametric bootstrap to assess conditional direct and indirect associations linking values, perceived support, and fertility intentions. The results showed that, among individuals with higher levels of postmaterialism, limited expected welfare-state childcare support was associated with a weaker perceived relevance of childbearing for self-fulfillment and, indirectly, with lower fertility intentions, whereas this indirect association was not evident among those expecting greater support. These findings underscore the importance of integrating motivational and institutional perspectives: the relevance of family policies for fertility intentions may depend not only on structural constraints, but also on whether perceived support resonates with individuals’ value systems.