Commencing Countdown, Engines On: Rethinking the Lifecycle of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

Entrepreneurial Ecosystems are increasingly recognized as key drivers of productive entrepreneurship and regional economic development. While the literature proposes several lifecycle models describing the emergence and evolution of ecosystems, these frameworks remain only partially supported by empirical evidence. The purpose of this study is to investigate how Entrepreneurial Ecosystems evolve across lifecycle stages over time. Drawing on a proprietary longitudinal dataset covering 80 national ecosystems between 2013 and 2024, we adopt an output-oriented perspective and measure ecosystem dynamics through scaleup creation, interpreted as an observable manifestation of productive entrepreneurship. To capture the dynamic nature of ecosystem evolution, we combine scaleup intensity with two additional indicators, namely growth velocity and acceleration, and identify lifecycle configurations using clustering analysis. We interpret the resulting phases through the metaphor of a rocket launch, and we label them Ignition, Liftoff, Orbit, Reentry and Docking, to underline the sequential dynamics of ecosystem development. Preliminary findings suggest that ecosystems do not follow strictly linear trajectories: phases of slowdown often represent temporary deceleration rather than structural decline. By conceptualizing ecosystem evolution as a dynamic and probabilistic process, this study contributes to the emerging literature on Entrepreneurial Ecosystem lifecycles and offers new insights for policymakers seeking to monitor and support ecosystem development over time.