The relationship between pesticides and risk in apple production

We examine how pesticide expenditure relates to the probability distribution of yield and revenue per hectare in apple production in northern Italy. Using a flexible moment- based approach, we find that pesticide expenditure is negatively associated with down- side risk in yield and revenue, whereas late frosts are positively associated with down- side risk in yield. Sensitivity analyses show that mean-equation estimates are robust to unobserved confounders, while negative semi-variance models are less robust over- all. Only the pesticide–expected outcome relationship appears plausibly causal. There- fore, conclusions about pesticides as risk-increasing or risk-decreasing inputs should be made with caution.