A twin transition or a flagship policy? Emergent constellations and dominant blocks in green and digital technologies

This paper seeks to understand whether what has been labeled the “twin transition”, a flagship EU policy, emerges as a new endogenous technological trajectory involving the convergence of green and digital technologies, or whether this policy is in fact having little impact. Embracing an evolutionary approach to technology, we first identify the set of relevant technologies defined as “green” and then analyze their evolution in terms of the dominant blocks within the green technology sector and their intertwining with digital technologies, drawing on 560,720 patents granted by the US Patent Office from 1976 to 2024. Three dominant blocks emerge as relevant in defining the direction of innovation, namely energy, transport, and production processes. We assess the technological concentration and underlying complexity of the dominant blocks, interpreting this through the construction of counterfactual scenarios. We find hardly any evidence for a pattern of actual endogenous convergence of green and digital technologies in the period under analysis. On the whole, for the time being, the “twin transition” appears to be a flagship policy in name only, rather than an endogenous technological trajectory driving structural change.