Armed Conflicts in Outer Space: Interaction Between Special Regimes During International Crises

Armed conflict in outer space, especially Anti-Satellite (ASAT) testing is a critical concern. Historical analysis reveals that destructive ASAT tests consistently coincide with relative power transitions. Space conflict threatens the object and purpose of the Outer Space Treaty. In this paper we offer a novel multidisciplinary approach to understanding and addressing space conflicts by combining Power Cycle Theory (PCT) and international legal analysis. While international space law and international humanitarian law (IHL), as two special regimes, regulate armed conflict in outer space, they sometimes create uncertainty by providing contradicting rules. Additionally, space law treaties represent lacunae, or legal gaps, regarding ASAT testing. The main questions, therefore, are (1) how to resolve contradictions between space law and IHL when they provide incompatible rules; and (2) how to fill the legal gaps arising from space law treaties when states conduct orbital-debris ASAT Tests. This paper hypothesizes that understanding states' positions in their power cycles may provide insights for filling existing lacunae. This being said, the analysis will examine how power transitions interact with legal frameworks during critical periods, aiming to identify approaches that could help resolve contradictions between space law and IHL while addressing gaps in existing treaties. For this purpose, the paper will first provide an overview of space militarization and governance. Then, this paper will analyze the fragmented order of international law (including special regimes of space law and IHL) during armed conflicts in outer space. Afterwards, Drawing on the International Law Commission Report on the Fragmentation of International Law and the dictum of the International Court of Justice in its Advisory Opinion on the Legality of the Use and the Threat of Use of Nuclear Weapons, it will promote interactions between the regimes and resolve potential conflicts. Then, it examines how the frequency of international power transitions correlates with orbital-debris ASAT testing patterns. The analysis suggests that these transitions can provide new insights for addressing legal gaps concerning armed conflicts in outer space. This work contributes to the research group "A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Armed Conflict in Outer Space" of the Space Generation Advisory Council Space Law and Policy project group.