Current and Projected Caregiver Support Ratios Across Europe and Italy

Growth in the elderly population will inevitably increase the demand for care and assistance, which must be matched by a sufficient number of individuals capable of providing the care and assistance required. This study aims to estimate the present and future caregiver support ratio (CSR) at the national level across Europe and at the Italian subnational level. Italy was selected due to its higher proportion of elderly citizens compared with other EU countries. The CSR is defined as the number of potential caregivers aged 45–64 years (the age range most commonly involved in caregiving) per citizen aged 80 and over (the most likely to require long-term caregiving). Data were obtained from Eurostat for the EU-level analysis, whereas those pertaining to Italy were sourced from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. CSR projections were made for the decades spanning 2030 to 2080. The findings show that the ratio of potential caregivers aged 45–64 to individuals aged 80 or over will steadily decline over the coming decades, implicating challenges for gerontological social policies. The results reveal variation in the CSR for the 27 European countries—with a decline from 5:1 in 2025 to 2:1 by 2050—and across the 20 Italian regions, as well as differences in the projected trends in CSR variations over the medium (until 2050) and long term (until 2080). Technology may offer possible solutions to address some of the challenges associated with the aging demographic.