La volatilità permanente come tratto costitutivo del sistema politico internazionale contemporaneo

Permanent volatility will be the key word for the next few years. This means that trying to predict possible developments, scenarios and even simple facts, accidents, could be much more difficult than ever. There is only one strategic skill that can make the difference between success and failure. Either the arrogant claim to be able to devise the perfect plan or the all-encompassing strategy cannot capture and contain all possible intervening variables. Instead, it is the ability to quickly identify and understand the flaws and leaks in our strategy, where predictions and forecasts have proved wrong or simply too weak, together with the speed to recognize mistakes and run to devise a new one