The resilience of drug trafficking organizations: Simulating the impact of police arresting key roles

Purpose: This research analyses the resistance and resilience of drug trafficking organizations against law enforcement interventions targeting specific operational roles. Methods: Using the MADTOR agent-based model, which draws on extensive data from a significant police operation and relevant literature, we simulate the complex dynamics of a major cocaine trafficking and dealing group. The study examined the impact of different arrest scenarios targeting traffickers, packagers, or retailers, on the organization's survival, member count, and revenue. Results: The findings reveal that interventions targeting traffickers lead to the most significant disruptions, while focusing on retailers also yields substantial impacts. Arresting packagers causes limited disruption. Conclusions: The findings underscore the importance of role-specific law enforcement approaches in dismantling drug trafficking organizations, considering each role's distinct characteristics and operational importance.