An asset pricing model with chartists, fundamentalists and trend followers is considered. A market maker adjusts the asset price in the direction of the excess demand at the end of each trading session. An exogenously given fundamental price discriminates between a bull market and a bear market. The buying and selling orders of traders change moving from a bull market to a bear market. Their asymmetric propensity to trade leads to a discontinuity in the model, with its deterministic skeleton given by a two-dimensional piecewise linear dynamical system in discrete time. Multiple attractors, such as a stable fixed point and one or more attracting cycles or cycles and chaotic attractors, appear through border collision bifurcations. The multi-stability regions are underlined by means of two-dimensional bifurcation diagrams, where the border collision bifurcation curves are detected in analytic form at least for basic cycles with symbolic sequences LR n and RL n. A statistical analysis of the simulated time series of the asset returns, generated by perturbing the deterministic dynamics with a random walk process, indicates that this is one of the simplest asset pricing models which are able to replicate stylized empirical facts, such as excess volatility, fat tails and volatility clustering.

Anufriev, M., Gardini, L., Radi, D., Chaos, border collisions and stylized empirical facts in an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents, <<NONLINEAR DYNAMICS>>, 2020; 102 (2): 993-1017. [doi:10.1007/s11071-020-05689-1] [https://hdl.handle.net/10807/224948]

Chaos, border collisions and stylized empirical facts in an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents

Radi, Davide
Ultimo
Methodology
2020

Abstract

An asset pricing model with chartists, fundamentalists and trend followers is considered. A market maker adjusts the asset price in the direction of the excess demand at the end of each trading session. An exogenously given fundamental price discriminates between a bull market and a bear market. The buying and selling orders of traders change moving from a bull market to a bear market. Their asymmetric propensity to trade leads to a discontinuity in the model, with its deterministic skeleton given by a two-dimensional piecewise linear dynamical system in discrete time. Multiple attractors, such as a stable fixed point and one or more attracting cycles or cycles and chaotic attractors, appear through border collision bifurcations. The multi-stability regions are underlined by means of two-dimensional bifurcation diagrams, where the border collision bifurcation curves are detected in analytic form at least for basic cycles with symbolic sequences LR n and RL n. A statistical analysis of the simulated time series of the asset returns, generated by perturbing the deterministic dynamics with a random walk process, indicates that this is one of the simplest asset pricing models which are able to replicate stylized empirical facts, such as excess volatility, fat tails and volatility clustering.
2020
Inglese
Anufriev, M., Gardini, L., Radi, D., Chaos, border collisions and stylized empirical facts in an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents, <<NONLINEAR DYNAMICS>>, 2020; 102 (2): 993-1017. [doi:10.1007/s11071-020-05689-1] [https://hdl.handle.net/10807/224948]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10807/224948
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