We study a dynamic asset allocation problem in which stock returns exhibit short-run momentum and long-run mean reversion. We develop a tractable continuous-time model that captures these two predictability features and derive the optimal investment strategy in closed form. The model predicts negative hedging demands for medium-term investors, and an allocation to stocks that is nonmonotonic in the investor's horizon. Momentum substantially increases the economic value of hedging time variation in investment opportunities. These utility gains are preserved when we impose realistic borrowing and short-sales constraints and allow the investor to trade on a monthly frequency.
Koijen, R., Rodriguez, J., Sbuelz, A., Momentum and Mean Reversion in Strategic Asset Allocation, <<MANAGEMENT SCIENCE>>, 2009; 55 (7): 1199-1213. [doi:10.1287/mnsc.1090.1006] [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/22241]
Momentum and Mean Reversion in Strategic Asset Allocation
Sbuelz, Alessandro
2009
Abstract
We study a dynamic asset allocation problem in which stock returns exhibit short-run momentum and long-run mean reversion. We develop a tractable continuous-time model that captures these two predictability features and derive the optimal investment strategy in closed form. The model predicts negative hedging demands for medium-term investors, and an allocation to stocks that is nonmonotonic in the investor's horizon. Momentum substantially increases the economic value of hedging time variation in investment opportunities. These utility gains are preserved when we impose realistic borrowing and short-sales constraints and allow the investor to trade on a monthly frequency.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.