Donorrecipient match is a matter of debate in liver transplantation. D-MELD (donor age x recipient biochemical model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]) and other factors were analyzed on a national Italian database recording 5946 liver transplants. Primary endpoint was to determine factors predictive of 3-year patient survival. D-MELD cutoff predictive of 5-year patient survival <50% (5yrsPS<50%) was investigated. A prognosis calculator was implemented (). Differences among D-MELD deciles allowed their regrouping into three D-MELD classes (A < 338, B 338-1628, C >1628). At 3 years, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 2.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.442.85) in D-MELD class C versus B. The OR was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.24-0.66) in class A versus class B. Other predictors were hepatitis C virus (HCV; OR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.11-1.81), hepatitis B virus (HBV; OR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.93), retransplant (OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.16-2.87) and low-volume center (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.1-11.99). Cox regressions up to 90 months confirmed results. The hazard ratio was 1.97 (95% CI, 1.592.43) for D-MELD class C versus class B and 0.42 (95% CI, 0.290.60) for D-MELD class A versus class B. Recipient age, HCV, HBV and retransplant were also significant. The 5yrsPS<50% cutoff was identified only in HCV patients (D-MELD = 1750). The innovative approach offered by D-MELD and covariates is helpful in predicting outcome after liver transplantation, especially in HCV recipients.
Avolio, A. W., Cillo, U., Salizzoni, M., De Carlis, L., Colledan, M., Gerunda, G., Mazzaferro, V., Tisone, G., Romagnoli, R., Caccamo, L., Rossi, M., Vitale, A., Cucchetti, A., Lupo, L., Gruttadauria, S., Nicolotti, N., Burra, P., Gasbarrini, A., Agnes, S., Lirosi, M., Miele, L., Pompili, M., Siciliano, M., Perilli, V., Gaspari, R., Castagneto, M., Tandoi, F., Mangoni, I., Belli, L., Pinna, A., Cescon, M., Gridelli, B., Li Petri, S., Volpes, R., Pinelli, D., Fagiuoli, S., Montalti, R., Regalia, E., Rossi, G., Antonelli, B., Berloco, P., Lai, Q., Risaliti, A., Nicolini, D., Valente, U., Gelli, M., Morelli, N., Zamboni, F., Tondolo, V., Ettorre, G., Vennarecci, G., Bresadola, F., Baccarani, U., Toniutto, P., Manzia, T., Anselmo, A., Angelico, M., Calise, F., Scuderi, V., Romano, M., Lupo, L., Rendina, M., Barone, M., Cuomo, O., Perrella, A., Santaniello, W., Donataccio, M., Dalle Ore, G., De Ville De Goyet, J., Monti, L., De Waure, C., Balancing Donor and Recipient Risk Factors in Liver Transplantation: The Value of D-MELD With Particular Reference to HCV Recipients, <<AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION>>, 2011; 11 (12): 2724-2736. [doi:10.1111/j.1600-6143.2011.03732.x] [https://hdl.handle.net/10807/220175]
Balancing Donor and Recipient Risk Factors in Liver Transplantation: The Value of D-MELD With Particular Reference to HCV Recipients
Avolio, Alfonso Wolfango;Nicolotti, Nicola;Gasbarrini, Antonio;Agnes, Salvatore;Miele, Luca;Pompili, Maurizio;Perilli, Valter;Gaspari, Rita;Fagiuoli, Stefano;Tondolo, Vincenzo;De Waure, Chiara
2011
Abstract
Donorrecipient match is a matter of debate in liver transplantation. D-MELD (donor age x recipient biochemical model for end-stage liver disease [MELD]) and other factors were analyzed on a national Italian database recording 5946 liver transplants. Primary endpoint was to determine factors predictive of 3-year patient survival. D-MELD cutoff predictive of 5-year patient survival <50% (5yrsPS<50%) was investigated. A prognosis calculator was implemented (). Differences among D-MELD deciles allowed their regrouping into three D-MELD classes (A < 338, B 338-1628, C >1628). At 3 years, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 2.03 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.442.85) in D-MELD class C versus B. The OR was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.24-0.66) in class A versus class B. Other predictors were hepatitis C virus (HCV; OR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.11-1.81), hepatitis B virus (HBV; OR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.93), retransplant (OR = 1.82; 95% CI, 1.16-2.87) and low-volume center (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 1.1-11.99). Cox regressions up to 90 months confirmed results. The hazard ratio was 1.97 (95% CI, 1.592.43) for D-MELD class C versus class B and 0.42 (95% CI, 0.290.60) for D-MELD class A versus class B. Recipient age, HCV, HBV and retransplant were also significant. The 5yrsPS<50% cutoff was identified only in HCV patients (D-MELD = 1750). The innovative approach offered by D-MELD and covariates is helpful in predicting outcome after liver transplantation, especially in HCV recipients.
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