This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability.

Carozzi, F., Cipullo, D., Repetto, L., Political Fragmentation and Government Stability: Evidence from Local Governments in Spain, <<AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL. APPLIED ECONOMICS>>, 2022; 14 (2): 23-50. [doi:10.1257/app.20200128] [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/208803]

Political Fragmentation and Government Stability: Evidence from Local Governments in Spain

Cipullo, Davide;
2021

Abstract

This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability.
Inglese
The manuscript was published in post-print version during 2021 and then included in the April 2022 issue of the journal.
Carozzi, F., Cipullo, D., Repetto, L., Political Fragmentation and Government Stability: Evidence from Local Governments in Spain, <<AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL. APPLIED ECONOMICS>>, 2022; 14 (2): 23-50. [doi:10.1257/app.20200128] [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/208803]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10807/208803
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