Present and future of kidney replacement therapy in Italy: the perspective from Italian Dialysis and Transplantation Registry (IDTR)

Incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) stabilizes or declines both in Europe and in the US; however, it is predictable that global prevalence of KRT will double by 2030. In this paper, we focus on the patterns of incidence, mortality, and prevalence of KRT in Italy, and we compare, when possible, the findings with other countries. The Italian Dialysis and Transplantation Registry (IDTR) currently collects aggregate data from regional registries. In Italy, KRT yearly incidence is around 160 patients per million population (pmp). This incidence showed an increasing trend up until 2011 with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.8%, after which it stabilized. Older age is an important determinant for KRT incidence, and it is strongly associated with the variability between Italian regions. Incidence is very stable within patients less than 50 years old; however, it greatly differs between regions for patients over 75 years old, ranging from 400 to 900 pmp. Moreover, the incidence for patients over 50 years old declined from 366 pmp in 2011 to 285 in 2017. An age-period-cohort (APC) model showed a very strong cohort effect, which shows the decline in incidence seems mainly due to the better health conditions of people born after 1940. Mortality rate in KRT patients was 109 per 1000 patient-year (py) between 2011 and 2017 with great differences among treatment modalities: 162 per 1000 py in haemodialysis, 117 per 1000 py in peritoneal dialysis, and 16 per 1000 py in kidney transplantation. Premature death is better detected by the standard expected years of life lost (YLL). The distribution of YLL rate per age shows a sharp increase between 40 and 70 years old both in haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients with an AAPC of 5.2% and 4.1% respectively. Transplanted patients experience a very low YLL rate at any age. KRT prevalence was 1118 pmp in 2017 and it should be close to 1175 pmp by 2025 with a projected increase of transplanted patients’ prevalence to 500 pmp, and a decrease of dialysis patients from 714 to 680 pmp. The proportion of patients treated with one of the three modalities strictly depends on age, with a sharp increase of haemodialysis after the age of 50. All data suggests the necessity to improve the care of middle and older age patients who experience the higher incidence of disease and mortality.