Una distensione mancata? L’amministrazione Trump e il nodo dei rapporti con la Russia

Donald Trump’s administration was supposed to start a long-needed review of the traditional US approach toward Russia, staring a new détente after the tensions that marked George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s presidencies. Expectations went disappointed. Not only détente failed to materialize, but relations further worsened in several theatres and on several issues. Russia enhanced its role in Syria and the Mediterranean, its ties with Ankara e Teheran counterbalanced Washington’s anti-Iranian initiatives, and its role in the Ukraine crisis remains a source of constant tension in Europe. There are many reasons why the US-Russian rapprochement failed. The speculations about the so-called “Russiagate” (the supposed Russian meddling with the 2916 US presidential elections) negatively impacted on Donald Trump’s freedom of action while the cleavages existing in the administration and the quick turnover of some key-positions weakened its political coherence. Most important, the diverging interests between Moscow and Washington made it difficult to find a mutually satisfactory middle way, also in the light of the strong anti-Russian bias of part of the Republican establishment. At the end of Trump’s mandate, the situation is – from many points of view – worse than at its beginning, with the US actively engaged in contrasting Russian ascendency at the Middle East and Europe, as well as in competing with Russia to modernize and strengthen both its conventional and nuclear arsenal. In this perspective, Joe Biden’s success in the 2020 presidential elections seems will probably have little impact on US-Russia dynamics, although stronger US-Europe relations could, possibly, enhance Washington’s standing vis à vis its opponent.