Gli effetti dei futuri scenari demografici ed economici sul livello di equilibrio del sistema previdenziale della Repubblica di San Marino: i risultati di un modello attuariale

Pension reform is a subject of hot debate all around the world. Over the last years, the world has witnessed a marked increase in public awareness about the need for retirement income planning. Struck by the looming financial crisis of most public retirement income programs, individuals and governments alike have started to give the retirement income issue a second look. The recommendations of public and private financial advisors generally involve some form of private retirement savings, be it at the level of the individual or the workplace. The motivation for these common recommendations lies in the considerable projected financial problems of the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems in the decades to come, once the baby-boomers enter retirement. How to adapt to population ageing is now a major challenge for most OECD countries. Without changes in existing policies, ageing could cause a marked slowdown in economic growth in most countries and result in a sharp deterioration of public finances. Based on current rules governing retirement and early retirement, the labour force will increase less rapidly, or even decline. Furthermore, additional resources will be needed to cover increased pension expenditure, irrespective of institutional arrangements The demographic trend, present and future problem for the financial viability of pension schemes, and the low employment rates, especially of women and old workers, are key challenges for Republic of San Marino welfare system too. RSM pension scheme is based, on a typical public PAYG system and characterised by rules introduced for different occupational groups The first (state and mandatory) pillar represent the most important source of income for olders. It provides high income replacement rates (levels of pension in relation to earnings) and it s financed by the lowest contribution rate in Europe. This book analyses the impact of population and occupational dynamics on future public pension expenditure in RSM welfare system. Numerical results indicate that there is an urgent need for public reform: future demographic and economic scenarios will lead to arising and unsustainable pension expenses. It s now essential to redefine the sharing mechanism on realistic grounds: some technical measures are here analysed and compared with RSM pension reform of 2006. The national strategy shows a tendency to become less generous as a result of a variety of adjustment. Simulation results confirm that the reform is a first effort to stabilise public pension expenditure and to control the future spending dynamics. However all this measures are only marginal solution and would be necessary a modernisation of the first pillar and a structural review of RSM pension system. Furthermore the development of supplementary pension schemes (second and third pillar) is a major challenge and an opportunity for ensuring future adequacy and financial sustainability