I soldi dei “bravi ragazzi”: controllo ed occultamento nelle decisioni di investimento delle mafie italiane

This paper studies the investments in legitimate businesses by mafia groups in Italy to assess whether investment patterns across industries by criminal organizations depend on the characteristics of the geographical location of the target firms. In particular, the empirical analysis – based on a database of 1,700 confiscated firms from mafia rganisations in Italy – uses this information as a proxy of infiltrated businesses and regresses it against a set of contextual factors (both socio-economic variables and criminal indicators, such as mafia presence and violence). Results suggest that the sectoral pattern of mafia investments depends on the different grip that criminal organizations hold on the territory. Ceteris paribus, mafia investments in the construction industry are higher in regions with a higher level of mafia associations, ‘protected’ markets and lower rates of violent crimes; while investments in the hospitality service industry (bars, restaurants and hotels) are higher in non-traditional mafia areas – characterised by lower mafia associations but higher violence, higher level of cash transactions and underground economy. The correlation with other indicators of economic activity (e.g. local business structure, income and unemployment) is irrelevant. The results suggest that investment in construction may be determined by control purposes – in the sense that can benefit from the grip on the territory and on the public administration, and strengthen it; and those in restaurants by concealment drivers, first of all money laundering. These findings may help understanding the dynamics of mafias’ diffusion beyond their territories of origin and designing more effective risk assessment models aimed at preventing money laundering and the infiltration of organised crime in the local economy.