Isolating Target And Neighbourhood Vulnerabilities In Crime Forecasting

Risk terrain modelling (RTM) is emerging as an effective approach for predicting how and where crimes concentrate within cities and regions. However, in its previous applications there is a tendency to overestimate the influence of external environmental risks and preventive factors. Most studies applying RTM have investigated factors associated with the characteristics of the urban setting, whilst only a limited number have focused on identifying the risks associated with the availability and the characteristics of potential targets for criminals. This study uses RTM to identify the spatial risk and protective factors related to residential burglaries in the city of Milan, Italy. Factors considered are the neighbourhood- and target-related contextual factors, the exposure to crime and potential mitigating strategies. The results show that when the place and target of the offence are intrinsically related a target-oriented approach to select factors is useful for increasing the understanding of why some locations are most likely to experience future crimes. Indeed, the peculiarities of the target itself are integral to understan both the decision-making of criminals and the overall level of crime risk. Related policy implications are discussed.