Impact of climate change on the possible expansion of almond cultivation area pole-ward: a case study of Abruzzo, Italy

Climate warming is causing an advance of the latest spring frosts and a consequent decrease of spring freeze risk during flowering. Cultivation areas of early blooming tree crops, such as almond, could be shifted pole-ward as consequence of global warming. On the other hand, warming winters and springs can cause an advance of the flowering period. The aim of the present work was to estimate which was the impact of climate change in the past six decades on the spring freeze damage risk during the almond blooming period in the Abruzzo region of Italy. According to our analysis a reduction of spring freeze risk due to the mitigation of springtime temperatures was counterbalanced by advanced almond blooming leaving the risk of spring freeze damage unchanged. These results suggest that the adaptation of almond phenology to changing climates could continue to limit the northward expansion of almond in Italy. Finally, these results may suggest that the loss of suitable areas due to loss of chilling units in the warmest climate areas cannot be compensated for by a pole-ward shift of almond plantings.