Environmental numerical models are deterministic tools widely used to simulate and predict complex systems. However, they are unsatisfying since they do not provide information about the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conversely, uncertainty assessment of model outputs can be useful to guide environmental agencies in improving computer models. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with a numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. The model is illustrated by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Paci, L., Cocchi, D., Gelfand, A., Quantifying uncertainty associated with a numerical model output, in Cabras, C. S., Di Battista, D. B. T., Racugno, R. W. (ed.), Proceedings of SIS 2014, CUEC, Cagliari 2014: 1- 6 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/98624]

Quantifying uncertainty associated with a numerical model output

Paci, Lucia;
2014

Abstract

Environmental numerical models are deterministic tools widely used to simulate and predict complex systems. However, they are unsatisfying since they do not provide information about the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conversely, uncertainty assessment of model outputs can be useful to guide environmental agencies in improving computer models. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with a numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. The model is illustrated by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.
eng
Proceedings of SIS 2014
9788884678744
CUEC
Paci, L., Cocchi, D., Gelfand, A., Quantifying uncertainty associated with a numerical model output, in Cabras, C. S., Di Battista, D. B. T., Racugno, R. W. (ed.), Proceedings of SIS 2014, CUEC, Cagliari 2014: 1- 6 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/98624]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/10807/98624
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