Democracy as an Instrument for Peace? An Investigation into the Italian Citizens’ Opinions

This article presents and analyses the findings of the third wave of the Observatory on the State of Democracy survey, conducted by Polidemos in collaboration with Ipsos Doxa on a representative sam- ple of the Italian population, with a focus on citizens’ opinions regard- ing the relationship between democracy, peace and the international order. The survey data reveal a complex and internally differentiated picture that challenges both complacent and catastrophist readings of the current democratic crisis. While a majority of respondents express significant dissatisfaction with the functioning of Italian democracy, widespread distrust of the political class and the media, and the percep- tion that politics has been displaced by economic and financial actors, these orientations do not translate into a rejection of democracy as a system of government. On the contrary, a plurality of citizens identifies the solution to the problems of democracy in a deepening of demo- cratic participation itself – through instruments such as referendums and direct democracy – while favouring a gradualist reformist approach over radical change. The article further examines citizens’ perceptions of the conditions for sustainable peace, showing that respondents pri- oritise a fair and balanced global economic system, free trade and the strengthening of supranational institutions over military solutions: nine out of ten respondents oppose an increase in Italian defence spending. About the relationship between democracy and peace, the article high- lights a significant nuance: while a plurality endorses the Wilsonian as- sumption that a world of democracies is the most reliable guarantee of peace, a substantial minority maintains that peaceful coexistence be- tween democratic and non-democratic regimes is also possible, with this scepticism towards the democratic peace thesis being especially pronounced among respondents identifying with the centre-right and right. Generational differences are also documented, with Generation Z showing a stronger preference for internationalist and supranational so- lutions. The article concludes by arguing against both defeatism and naïve optimism: the fundamentals of Italian democratic culture are holding, but the discontent visible in public opinion constitutes a pre- cise and legible signal that governing elites are called to address.