Whither Iraq? Continuities and Ruptures in the Post-2003 Era

The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq stands as one of the most significant turning points in the geopolitical and socio-political landscape of the Middle East in the early twenty-first century. Far from producing the swift stabilization and democratic transformation envisioned by its architects, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein inaugurated a prolonged period of institutional collapse, violent contestation, and geopolitical realignment whose repercussions continue to shape Iraq and the wider region. From the outset, developments inside Iraq unfolded in constant interaction with broader regional dynamics, turning the country into a central arena where local conflicts, regional rivalries, and international interventions intersected. This chapter traces Iraq’s transformation from the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom to the mid-2020s, examining how successive phases of conflict, reconstruction, and political bargaining produced a hybrid and deeply contested political order. It argues that the failure to preserve core state structures after 2003 - combined with exclusionary political practices, sectarianized governance, and sustained foreign interference - generated a cycle of instability that facilitated the rise of insurgent movements, most notably the organization of the “Islamic State”, while simultaneously empowering a multiplicity of non-state, hybrid and sub-state actors.