Per una migliore integrazione

Why do populist parties with an anti-immigrant stance have success in areas that host few immigrants? We use data from a sample of Italian municipalities to show that the relationship between the vote shares of anti-immigration parties and the share of immigrants follows a U-shaped curve, which exhibits a tipping-like behavior around a share of immigrants equal to 3.35 %. We estimate that the vote share of Lega Nord, the main Italian anti-immigration party, is approximately 6 % points higher for municipalities below the threshold. We show that the competition in the labor market between low-skilled natives and immigrants is the more plausible explanation for the electoral success of anti-immigration parties in areas with low immigrant shares. We rationalize our findings with a simple theoretical model and show that alternative stories are not supported by the data. Finally, we discuss the policy implications and suggest how immigration and labor market policies could reduce anti-immigration sentiment.