The chapter discusses transition risk for tourism, addressing its relation with the Environmental Kuznets Curve and overtourism. Transition risk emerges when an economic model moves from carbon-intensive to carbon–neutral activities with market, technological, regulation, and reputational connotations. The EU is adopting mitigation policies to reduce the physical risks of climate change and introduce regulation and reputation risk with the Emission Trading System 2. We used an Ordinary Least Squares with Heteroskedastic and Auto-Correlated Robust Standard errors over a cross-section of more than 6000 municipalities in Italy. The beds in structures per squared kilometer proxied tourism intensity. We found that tourism drives local emissions ceteris paribus, contributing to regulation and reputational risk.
Mazzarano, M., Galluccio, G., Borghesi, S., Reflections on Climate Resilient Tourism: Evidence for the EU ETS-2 and Voluntary Carbon Markets, in Xuefeng Fan, D., Efthymiou, L., Thrassou, A., Vrontis, D. (ed.), Global Challenges and Uncertainty in Tourism and Hospitality, Volume I, Strategies for Resilience and Adaptation, Springer Nature, Gewerbestrasse 2025: 245- 267. 10.1007/978-3-031-92405-7_9 [https://hdl.handle.net/10807/324261]
Reflections on Climate Resilient Tourism: Evidence for the EU ETS-2 and Voluntary Carbon Markets
Mazzarano, Matteo
Primo
Writing – Original Draft Preparation
;
2025
Abstract
The chapter discusses transition risk for tourism, addressing its relation with the Environmental Kuznets Curve and overtourism. Transition risk emerges when an economic model moves from carbon-intensive to carbon–neutral activities with market, technological, regulation, and reputational connotations. The EU is adopting mitigation policies to reduce the physical risks of climate change and introduce regulation and reputation risk with the Emission Trading System 2. We used an Ordinary Least Squares with Heteroskedastic and Auto-Correlated Robust Standard errors over a cross-section of more than 6000 municipalities in Italy. The beds in structures per squared kilometer proxied tourism intensity. We found that tourism drives local emissions ceteris paribus, contributing to regulation and reputational risk.
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