A plant disease model is a simplification of the relationships (between a patho-gen, a host plant, and the environment) that determine whether and how an epi-demic develops over time and space. This chapter describes an approach for de-veloping mechanistic, weather-driven, dynamic models which are suitable to be applied in precision crop protection. Model building consists of four steps: (I) defi-nition of the model purpose; (II) conceptualization; (III) development of the mathe-matical relationships; and (IV) model evaluation. Conceptualization is based on systems analysis; it assumes that the state of the pathosystem can be quantitatively determined and that changes in the system can be described by mathematical equations. A conceptual model describes the system (both conceptually and mathematically), and a set of driving models accounts for changes caused by the external variables. Two main types of conceptual models are described: plant- and pathogen-focused models. Model evaluation is the judgement of the overall adequacy of the model, which includes: verification, validation, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and judgement of utility. Finally, the chapter briefly considers how models can be used as tools for decision making at different scales of time and space: from warning services to precision agriculture.

Rossi, V., Giosue', S., Caffi, T., Modelling plant diseases for decision making in crop protection, in Gerhards, R., Oerke, E., Menz, G., Sikora, R. (ed.), Precision Crop Protection - The Challenge and Use of Heterogeneity, Springer, Dordrecht 2010: 241- 258. 10.1007/978-90-481-9277-9_15 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/28932]

Modelling plant diseases for decision making in crop protection

Rossi, Vittorio;Giosue', Simona;Caffi, Tito
2010

Abstract

A plant disease model is a simplification of the relationships (between a patho-gen, a host plant, and the environment) that determine whether and how an epi-demic develops over time and space. This chapter describes an approach for de-veloping mechanistic, weather-driven, dynamic models which are suitable to be applied in precision crop protection. Model building consists of four steps: (I) defi-nition of the model purpose; (II) conceptualization; (III) development of the mathe-matical relationships; and (IV) model evaluation. Conceptualization is based on systems analysis; it assumes that the state of the pathosystem can be quantitatively determined and that changes in the system can be described by mathematical equations. A conceptual model describes the system (both conceptually and mathematically), and a set of driving models accounts for changes caused by the external variables. Two main types of conceptual models are described: plant- and pathogen-focused models. Model evaluation is the judgement of the overall adequacy of the model, which includes: verification, validation, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and judgement of utility. Finally, the chapter briefly considers how models can be used as tools for decision making at different scales of time and space: from warning services to precision agriculture.
2010
Inglese
Precision Crop Protection - The Challenge and Use of Heterogeneity
978-90-481-9276-2
Rossi, V., Giosue', S., Caffi, T., Modelling plant diseases for decision making in crop protection, in Gerhards, R., Oerke, E., Menz, G., Sikora, R. (ed.), Precision Crop Protection - The Challenge and Use of Heterogeneity, Springer, Dordrecht 2010: 241- 258. 10.1007/978-90-481-9277-9_15 [http://hdl.handle.net/10807/28932]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10807/28932
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