Policy Recommendations for the EU

Mosul is falling and, with it, the hopes of the "Islamic State" to remain a dominant force in Iraq. But this neither marks the complete defeat of IS in Iraq, nor it necessarily signals the end of the crisis affecting the country. While severely weakened, the movement led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi continues to control important areas of Syraq; it also demonstrated to possess resilience, adaptability, and sufficient operational capabilities to wage a prolonged offensive against cities and territories formally purged by its presence. On the other hand, while it is impossible not to hail the liberation of Mosul as an important victory for Baghdad and to celebrate the crucial blow inflicted to the “regime of fear” moulded by IS over the ashes of the Saddam era, it is equally impossible to dream of a return to the status quo ante preceding the spiral of violence that invested Iraq during the last five years. In this framework, the international community has the real chance to make a difference. It is not only a way to repay the moral debt incurred with the Iraqi people, but also a way to stabilise an area that has been at the core of an arc of instability.