Criminal organizations operate in complex changing environments. Being flexible and dynamic allows criminal networks not only to exploit new illicit opportunities but also to react to law enforcement attempts at disruption, enhancing the persistence of these networks over time. Most studies investigating network disruption have examined organizational structures before and after the arrests of some actors but have disregarded groups’ adaptation strategies. The present study investigated the resilience of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) to law enforcement attempts at disruption, focusing on three main aspects: the ability to endure disruption, react quickly and efficiently to threats, and keep primary functions unaltered. The analysis relied on an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates drug trafficking and dealing activities by organized criminal groups and their reactions to law enforcement attempts at disruption. The simulation relied on information retrieved from a detailed court order against a large-scale Italian DTO and from the literature. The results demonstrated that law enforcement interventions are often critical events for DTOs, with high rates of disruption. However, surviving DTOs always displayed a high level of resilience, with effective strategies in place to react to threatening events and to continue drug trafficking and dealing.
Le organizzazioni criminali operano in ambienti mutevoli e complessi. Flessibilità e dinamicità consentono loro di sfruttare nuove opportunità illecite e di reagire alle azioni di contrasto delle forze dell'ordine (FdO). Molti studi sulla resilienza delle reti criminali esaminano le strutture organizzative dei gruppi a seguito dell’arresto di alcuni membri, ma spesso trascurano le strategie di adattamento dei gruppi. Lo studio ha analizzato la resilienza delle organizzazioni attive nel traffico e spaccio di stupefacenti, concentrandosi su tre aspetti: la capacità di non soccombere, di reagire in maniera rapida ed efficace e di mantenere inalterate le funzioni primarie dell’organizzazione. Lo sviluppo di un modello ad agenti basato sui contenuti di un’ordinanza per l’applicazione di misure cautelari per i membri di un’organizzazione camorristica coinvolta nel traffico di stupefacenti e sulla letteratura criminologica esistente ha permesso la simulazione delle attività di traffico e spaccio da parte di organizzazioni criminali e le relative reazioni alle azioni di contrasto delle FdO. I risultati identificano le azioni di contrasto delle FdO come eventi critici per la sopravvivenza delle organizzazioni criminali. Tuttavia, le organizzazioni rimaste attive mostrano un’alta resilienza, con efficaci reazioni agli eventi di contrasto al fine di continuare le attività di traffico e spaccio.
MANZI, DEBORAH, THE RESILIENCE OF CRIMINAL NETWORKS: AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION ASSESSING DRUG TRAFFICKING ORGANIZATIONS REACTIONS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT ATTEMPTS AT DISRUPTION, CALDERONI, FRANCESCO, BERLUSCONI, GIULIA, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Milano:Ciclo XXXV [https://hdl.handle.net/10807/285177]
THE RESILIENCE OF CRIMINAL NETWORKS: AN AGENT-BASED SIMULATION ASSESSING DRUG TRAFFICKING ORGANIZATIONS REACTIONS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT ATTEMPTS AT DISRUPTION
Manzi, Deborah
2023
Abstract
Criminal organizations operate in complex changing environments. Being flexible and dynamic allows criminal networks not only to exploit new illicit opportunities but also to react to law enforcement attempts at disruption, enhancing the persistence of these networks over time. Most studies investigating network disruption have examined organizational structures before and after the arrests of some actors but have disregarded groups’ adaptation strategies. The present study investigated the resilience of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) to law enforcement attempts at disruption, focusing on three main aspects: the ability to endure disruption, react quickly and efficiently to threats, and keep primary functions unaltered. The analysis relied on an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates drug trafficking and dealing activities by organized criminal groups and their reactions to law enforcement attempts at disruption. The simulation relied on information retrieved from a detailed court order against a large-scale Italian DTO and from the literature. The results demonstrated that law enforcement interventions are often critical events for DTOs, with high rates of disruption. However, surviving DTOs always displayed a high level of resilience, with effective strategies in place to react to threatening events and to continue drug trafficking and dealing.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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