https://hdl.handle.net/10807/196 2026-04-23T03:57:27Z https://hdl.handle.net/10807/332438 Titolo: Reversal Costs and Executive Overreach Autori: Barbara Antonioli Mantegazzini; Federico Trombetta 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10807/332416 Titolo: The Mechanics of Endogenous Diffusion: A Tractable Analytical Framework Autori: Baussola, Maurizio Luigi 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10807/332280 Titolo: THE EXPERT ASSESSMENT WITHIN BANCA D’ITALIA’S IN-HOUSE CREDIT ASSESSMENT SYSTEM Autori: Lorenzo Esposito; Massimo Guglielmi; Francesco Monterisi; Simone Narizzano; Marco Orlandi Abstract: This study investigates the role of the expert assessment – conducted by two analysts following the production of a rating based solely on the statistical model – within Banca d’Italia’s in-house credit assessment system of Italian non-financial firms (ICAS). We have two aims: to document recent methodological enhancements, including the integration of climate-related risks and of sector analysis, and to provide an estimate of the contribution of the expert assessment to the rating process. The study leverages over 25,000 assessments produced by analysts between 2016 and 2022, including corporate default events. The recent methodological innovations have enhanced the transparency and consistency of the expert assessment, facilitating the integration of new risk sources. Our empirical results show that the expert assessment significantly improves both the predictive power and the discriminatory power of the full ratings obtained through ICAS, compared with the ratings based solely on the statistical model, with an increase of the AUROC of around 2 percentage points. Furthermore, the expert assessment protects the performance of ICAS, particularly during periods of macroeconomic stress. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/10807/330817 Titolo: War and peace for natural resources as economic goods Autori: Zoboli R. Abstract: The paper addresses the role natural and environmental resources in armed and non-armed conflicts through a political economy approach. The analytical reading key is the classifications of economic goods —‘private’, ‘public’, and common goods or ‘commons’, renewable and non-renewable resources, tradable and non-tradable goods. The main hypothesis is that the economic attributes of resources as economic goods can inference the likelihood of observing conflicts or cooperation, especially at the international level. In the case of fossil resource - ‘private goods’, non-renewable, tradable – the likelihood of conflict is high, particularly in weak state contexts, through mechanisms such as resource rents and smuggling networks. Geopolitical factors, price fluctuations and strategic control, influence global conflict patterns and resource-based power struggles. However, the analysis underscores that fossil resource can also foster cooperation, however unstable, within the paradigm of ‘peace and trade’. In the case of water – ‘private good’ or ‘commons’, renewable, non-tradable - conflicts are often localized but cooperation prevails in transboundary contexts. Conflicts over water are relatively rare compared to cooperative arrangements, but climate change and the variability of hydrological regime are increasing tensions, particularly in regions dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In the case of climate – a ‘commons’, non-renewable when taking a Global Carbon Budget perspective, non-tradable when leaving aside emission trading systems – the paper highlight tow paradigms - the ‘fossil paradigm’ and the ‘climate change paradigm’ - that are clashing one another to gain the socio-economic and the ‘vision’ dominance of the world system. Key findings reveal that the persistence of fossil fuel interests and the strategic management of critical raw materials pose significant obstacles to a rapid energy transition and equitable climate governance. The analysis underscores that aligning climate policies with principles of shared governance and equity is essential for mitigating conflicts and advancing cooperation. As a general conclusion, non-renewable, tradable resources such as fossil fuels are more prone to conflict yet can also foster cooperation through the ‘peace and trade’ paradigm. Conversely, ‘commons’ like transboundary waters and climate can bring, because of their own economic nature, to global governance and peace-promoting processes. However, different types of tensions internal to cooperative governance can arise, and critical raw materials - ‘private goods’, non-renewable, tradable – can bring to new conflicts or, conversely, to cooperation through ‘peace and trade’ within the ‘climate change paradigm’ . 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z